Zheng's claims sparked intense debate within China, with some supporters arguing that they objectively depicted the vast gap between China's technological progress and the West.
But opponents argue that the middle-technology trap fails to accurately describe China's current situation because China has surpassed the United States in several ways.
A recent contribution to this debate was published last month in an article in the Communist Party's mouthpiece, the People's Daily.
“[We should] “Address the technological gaps of the 'four foundations', strengthen technical expertise in areas such as infrastructure construction, mobile payments and the digital economy, and prioritize the development of general technologies, represented by artificial intelligence,” the article said. Stated.
“We should promote high-quality international cooperation, enhance the market reputation of 'Made in China' and strengthen China's position in global industrial, supply and innovation chains.”
Liu Shaoshan, director of the physical intelligence department at the Shenzhen Institute of Social Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, said China's rapid economic growth over the past few decades has benefited greatly from technological innovations in developed countries.
He said other countries are following a similar strategy of first aiming to become wealthy before shifting their focus to greater innovation.
Huawei's AI chip capabilities are under scrutiny as Nvidia names Huawei as a potential rival
Huawei's AI chip capabilities are under scrutiny as Nvidia names Huawei as a potential rival
Liu does not believe that China lacks the ability to innovate. He said that while “China used to be more focused on how to make the cake big than it was on whether cream was invented at home,” there will be a series of innovations over the next five to 10 years. insisted.
But he also cautioned that they should consider how to optimize incentives and review the systems that support this process.
Even in areas where China is leading, such as electric vehicles, foreign technology is still needed.
An automotive engineer, speaking on condition of anonymity, said China is developing domestic solutions mainly in “core areas.” [areas] Fields of automobile manufacturing such as batteries, electric drive systems, electronic control systems, etc.
But when it comes to digital simulation software that can create a digital twin of a real car before developing a model, Chinese automakers typically use software developed by French software company Dassault Systèmes for digital physical modeling.
The product has proven critical given that a car is made up of tens of thousands of parts, and China has yet to come up with a domestic replacement, he said.
According to Zhao Junbo, a professor at Zhejiang University's Institute of Computer Software, China is also lagging behind the United States in generative artificial intelligence.
“While open sourcing, [large language model] Metal's LLaMA has influenced many companies developing ChatGPT applications, but the technical route behind Sora is completely different. Even if the source code were available, it would be difficult to replicate a similar text-to-video application,” he told Shanghai-based news outlet The Paper.
“In today's technologically advanced environment, the days of fighting alone or relying on a single hero are over.
“The key is having the right team of people, the computing power and data pool, and building over time.”
01:15
Drone food delivery begins in China's tech capital Shenzhen
Drone food delivery begins in China's tech capital Shenzhen
There is still debate as to whether the United States and China are truly rivals in key high-tech areas. But Zhou Yu, a professor at New York's Vassar College who studies globalization and China's high-tech industry, believes this will happen if the world's two largest economies are separated.
He predicts that in the near future, China's high-tech growth will appear in areas such as the Internet, green technology, alternative energy, biotechnology, materials science and applications, robotics, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing.
“In China, with further decoupling expected, most energy will be replaced by imports. The resulting substitutes will eventually be exported to the world, and “The United States is likely to continue to dominate in some areas,” he said.
She made a similar claim during a recent panel discussion hosted by the New School India-China Institute in New York City, saying that current “US decoupling” efforts aim to “weaponize high-tech supply chains.” He claimed that
“The most detrimental thing is the uncertainty about future supply. If you build a technology based on what's available today and you don't know if it will be available in the future, it's very difficult for a company to develop.” It's going to be a big problem,” Zhou said.
Zhou said more Chinese companies are anticipating further decoupling, and the entire ecosystem is mobilizing to anticipate, identify and fill gaps that “create demand for substitutes and substitutes that didn't exist.” He said that it has been done.
The product's development was widely hailed within China as an example of China finding ways to reduce the impact of U.S. sanctions, but Zhou called it “an example of how much pressure these companies are under to find alternatives.” This is an example of whether people are exposed to
US general warns of 'staggering' growth in China's space technology
US general warns of 'staggering' growth in China's space technology
However, some question the very concept of a middle-technology trap. Wang Yanbo, associate professor of strategy and innovation at the University of Hong Kong, said this “may seem effective on the surface, but it is ultimately misleading.”
“Academics and policymakers should not only focus on the stage of technological development, but also pay more attention to the mechanisms that promote or constrain the growth of a country's scientific and technological capabilities,” Wang said. Stated.
“To truly improve their technological capabilities, countries need to engage with the international community, exchange knowledge, collaborate and participate in global knowledge production and commercialization.”
“Self-reliance is not a viable path for technological development in the modern world,” Wang said.
He cited the end of the Soviet Union, which had been working to develop its computing and chip manufacturing industries for 20 years before collapsing, and that Japanese companies were also denied access to technology developed with U.S. national power, leaving them as world leaders. He added that he couldn't become one. Laboratory.
He said “cooperating with the international community, leveraging knowledge spillovers from world leaders in science and technology, and determining how to access complementary assets across borders” will lead to the so-called middle technology trap. He said this is the key to dealing with it.
“None of this is about technology per se,” he says.
02:17
Chinese tech companies pursue metaverse opportunities with immersive virtual online worlds
Chinese tech companies pursue metaverse opportunities with immersive virtual online worlds
Gong Tao, founder of Shandong-based technology company Qibo Robot, also has doubts about the concept.
Geng cited Germany, Japan and the United States as examples of countries considered to be scientifically advanced, saying these countries are leaders in certain fields and have unique competitive advantages. .
He argued that while China currently lags behind in some areas, such as cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing, it is a leader in other technologies, such as electric vehicles and some medical devices.
“In the middle-income trap, we primarily measure and compare economic indicators for countries and regions. But technology has so many different dimensions and categories that we refuse to see it as a whole. ” he said.
“For example, it can be divided into high-end and low-end technologies, traditional fields and emerging fields.”
