With the rise of AI, this question is weighing heavily among workers, employers, and economists, as automation and machine learning promise to make our daily and working lives easier.
But for many, automation could mean complete job replacement, and if technology does not provide or create alternative jobs, the consequences could be dire for those unable to reskill. .
Moreover, if the net number of jobs decreases due to the spread of new technologies, reskilling alone may not be enough.
All these questions and considerations confuse the debate about the positive aspects of technological advancement in our current society. Less work means more free time, the ability to pursue creative endeavors, and the ability to foster a larger community. But as things stand, the cost of living crisis continues to squeeze people's incomes, meaning fewer jobs are available and more people may be unable to afford basic necessities. .
So, is technology a net positive or negative? Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) have found that technology has had a net impact on employment, at least in the United States, since the 1940s. We attempted to quantify whether or not this is the case.
The study balances jobs lost due to machine automation with jobs created through technology expansion that creates new tasks and jobs.
Researchers have found that automation has outpaced augmentation since around the 1980s. Since the technology boom, technology has replaced more jobs than it created in the United States.
Still, the study developed a method to measure the number of jobs created by technology since the 1940s by tracking U.S. patent records and analyzing U.S. Census occupations.
This revealed that about 60% of jobs in the United States are new types of jobs developed after 1940. For example, being a computer scientist will be a completely new job that didn't exist at all in the 1940s.
From 1940 to 2018, there were two periods in which automation and expansion took place in different ways.
From the 1940s to the 1980s, many jobs were automated, such as typesetters and elevator operators, but emerging technologies also forced workers into new roles such as engineering, department managers, and shipping clerks. It became necessary to increase the number of staff.
However, since the 1980s, machinists and other traditional manufacturers have been increasingly replaced by automation. Still, systems and research analysis and engineering achieved further growth in various industries.
Research shows that from the 1980s to 2018, the negative impact of automation on jobs was more than double that of the previous 40 years.
The amount of new employment continued to show positive growth from 1980 to 2018, but this was modest compared to 1940–1980.
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What does AI have to say?
“AI is really different,” said David Orter, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Massachusetts Institute of Technology News. He co-authored the paper with Caroline Chin, Anna Salomons and Brian Seegmiller.
“This may replace some of the advanced expertise, but it may complement the task of decision-making. We're in an age where we have a new tool but we don't know what it's good for. “I think new technology has its pros and cons, and it takes time to understand them. GPS was invented for military purposes and took decades to make it to smartphones.”
Historical patterns show that new jobs are often squeezed out from the middle, creating jobs in highly educated, low-wage jobs and exacerbating already huge wage disparities.
“The new work is branching out,” Autor said. “Old works were erased in the middle, and new works grew on both sides.”
