Earlier this year, IEEE Roadmaps and Systems (IRDS) released a technology roadmap report on bulk data storage. I co-chaired this effort along with Roger Hoyt, which included experts in a variety of storage and non-volatile memory technologies. This report is available for free download from IEEE. This activity is a continuation of the bi-annual Large Capacity Storage His Roadmap activity that Roger and I, together with his iNEMI, have led for many years.
The report covers hard disk drives, magnetic tape, optical disk technology, and solid state storage. In addition, there are documents associated with other IRDS roadmaps on non-volatile memory technologies such as magnetic random access memory (MRAM), resistive memory (ReRAM), ferroelectric memory (FeRAM), and phase change memory (PCM). There is also a section on the use of DNA for archival storage.
Below are some highlights from the report. When it comes to solid-state storage, NAND flash currently dominates the $60 billion market. Alternative technologies such as MRAM, FeRAM, ReRAM, and PCM are being used in embedded devices to replace NOR flash and some he SRAMs (particularly MRAM and ReRAM), although they still have a higher cost per bit. . 2024 will be the year that all storage and memory technologies recover after the downturns of 2022 and 2023, when supply uncertainties caused by the pandemic led to excess inventory. Future developments in NAND flash will continue towards higher tiers and increased bits per cell, but cost reduction will become increasingly difficult and increased bits per cell will reduce endurance and performance. To do.
The diagram below shows the NAND flash roadmap from the mass storage roadmap.
Total HDD shipments continue to decline and legacy applications are being replaced by SSDs. However, the data center and enterprise nearline HDD market will recover in his 2024, and the demand for HDD storage for big data applications, including AI, will continue to increase. These drives are sealed and helium-filled, contain up to 10 disks, and may include dual actuators, heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) and two-dimensional magnetic recording (TDMR). Current storage capacity is up to 32 TB, but 50 TB HDDs should be available by 2026. This allows HDDs to compete with SSDs in secondary storage and active archive applications.
The diagram below shows some predictions for HDD technology from the Mass Storage Roadmap.
The native capacity of magnetic half-inch tapes is now up to 50 TB (IBM Enterprise Tape), and tapes do not consume much energy except when they are in the drive. Tape also costs significantly less per byte of data stored than HDD. Therefore, tape provides low-cost and compact archival storage. Future generations should make cartridges available with native capacities greater than 100TB. Tape will benefit from the development of HDD magnetic recording for future capacity increases.
The table below shows magnetic tape projections from the Mass Storage Roadmap.
Optical disk technology has declined as a consumer media distribution medium, and new optical storage products are focused on use as low-cost archival storage media. Write-once 100TB optical disks are predicted in the near future, and optical storage may be incorporated into optical library systems. Optical libraries face competition from magnetic tape libraries, which are more established for archival applications.
The diagram below shows the optical disk roadmap from the mass storage roadmap.
Although DNA data storage has been demonstrated in the laboratory, the cost of reading and writing data on synthetic DNA is too high for practical use. However, the speed of technological development in genomics for medical applications is decreasing the cost of reading and writing synthetic DNA, potentially making DNA an affordable alternative for archival storage in the near future. The storage location for the DNA will likely be in some kind of library system, such as magnetic tape or optical disks. Much work is required to create a manufacturable and cost-effective DNA storage system.
The demand for digital storage is increasing, creating the need for more advanced storage technologies to support a robust digital mass storage hierarchy. The IEEE IRDS Mass Storage Roadmap outlines predictions for the development of NAND flash, new non-volatile memories, HDDs, magnetic tape, optical recording, and DNA storage.