Written by Mohamed Soliman
Like the seminal work of Halford Mackinder Geographical turning point in historyargues that control of Eurasian centers holds the key to world domination, and that the world stands on the precipice of a new and important change, driven not by geography but by the relentlessness of exponential technological change. caused by force. This is an era of technological pivots in history, where the balance of power rests not only on land but also on the ability to harness and wield an ever-evolving arsenal of technological advances.
The pace of innovation today is astonishing. Moore's Law, once a simple observation, has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy as processing power doubles approximately every two years. This exponential growth is not limited to Silicon Valley, but is reshaping every aspect of human life, from the microscopic to the macroscopic. Transistors, the building blocks of chips, are now routinely packed into spaces smaller than the width of a human hair. This miniaturization, driven by Moore's Law, helped fuel the rise of smartphones, which outperformed desktop computers just a decade ago, and opened the door for even more powerful AI applications, such as self-driving cars and real-time medical diagnostics. has been released. Generative AI, a subfield focused on creating new content, is already producing amazing results. Tools like DALL-E 2 can generate photorealistic images from simple text descriptions, while GPT-3 and Google Bard can create convincing human-quality prose poems and even code. As these models become more sophisticated, the parameters and variables that define their behavior become increasingly complex, opening up a vast world of creative and exponential possibilities.
Robotics and automation are transforming industries from manufacturing to agriculture. Automated assembly lines churn out goods with unprecedented efficiency, while robots tend crops and manage livestock with precision. These advances not only improve productivity but also create new opportunities for human-robot collaboration. For a more striking example, consider the innovative field of DNA testing. Once relegated to expensive laboratories, genetic analysis is now available to the general public. Companies like 23andMe and AncestryDNA offer affordable kits that uncover previously unknown family history and predict predisposition to certain diseases. This democratization of genetic information will lead to breakthroughs in personalized medicine and the understanding of human health.
The impact of these technological advances extends far beyond technological improvements and fundamentally alters power relations on the world stage. Just as empires of the past rose and fell based on geography and resource mastery, future power dynamics will be determined by technological prowess. The situation of national power is changing. Territorial breadth, resource abundance, and even military power may no longer guarantee hegemony. Rather, the ability to foster innovation, attract talent, and adapt will determine who succeeds in this rapidly changing environment. In recent decades, the rapid growth of technology has redefined national sovereignty and hegemony. New geopolitical boundaries will continue to be drawn around technology and information flows. Historically, they have been shaped geopolitically and by traditional military advantages. Technology is therefore central to the balance of power. In recent years, it has become clear that the United States and China are engaged in a technology-driven great power competition, with implications ranging from cyber warfare to intellectual property, data to AI, and from undersea cables to low-orbit satellites.
Intensifying competition in the cyber and technology space, also known as the “US-China technology cold war,” is prompting major and regional powers to develop their own cyber and technology doctrines. From the chip-making chokepoints of the Netherlands to the ambitious AI programs of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a new wave of emerging powers is disrupting the global technology landscape. Shipyards in East Asia, led by Japan and South Korea, are now mass producing giant ships that traverse the world's oceans, and industrial revolutions are occurring in India and Vietnam. In the skies, Turkey has carved out a niche position as a drone powerhouse, with the Bayraktar TB2 becoming a popular product. These countries are not just catching up, they are pushing boundaries and challenging incumbent leaders in an innovation race that promises to shape the future of technology and reshape the world. Their technological principles reflect a growing recognition that technological capabilities can be a great force multiplier in today's multipolar and unstable world.
Long a pioneer in technological innovation, the United States now faces increased scrutiny from other countries looking at the impact of their technological prowess on their past geopolitical positions. Case in point: U.S. technology played a key role in the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, supporting Ukraine's efforts to counter Russian aggression. Unsurprisingly, China is pouring billions of dollars into AI research and development, aiming to gain an edge in a technology that is poised to revolutionize every aspect of human life. Consider Silicon Valley in the United States. Silicon Valley is creating disruptive technology but struggling with internal divisions and anxiety about the pace of change. The race for technological superiority continues, and the results will define new hierarchies of power.
Unlike zero-sum battles for geographic dominance, technology pivots offer the potential for shared gains amid inequality. But the digital divide threatens to leave entire populations behind in exponential times. Ethical considerations loom large. Issues of privacy, security, and the very nature of humanity in the age of machines require urgent attention. Navigating this pivot requires a paradigm shift in thinking about international cooperation on standards and regulations to ensure the responsible and ethical use of technology. Because the use of technology raises existential questions about our place in a world increasingly shaped by machines.
Technological turning points in history are transformative times in which the balance of power is no longer determined solely by geography, but by the ability to take advantage of exponential technological innovation. As the world witnesses the escalating US-China technology cold war, it is becoming clear that competition for technological supremacy will shape future power hierarchies. The digital divide is growing exponentially, threatening to relegate entire nation-states to the sidelines of this turning point in technological history.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and are supported by Foreign Policy Research, a nonpartisan organization that strives to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles about U.S. foreign policy and national security. It does not necessarily reflect the position of the place. Priority.
- About the author: Mohamed Soliman is Director of the Strategic Technology and Cybersecurity Program at the Middle East Institute and a Visiting Fellow in Third Way's National Security Program. He can be found at his X @Thisissoliman.
- This article was published by FPRI
