The quantum computing race begins

Although scientists do not fully understand the basic science of quantum mechanics, a global geopolitical, military, and commercial race to develop affordable and reliable quantum computers and associated software continues. It's not at all clear how long it will take or how much it will cost.

Over the next few years, the world will find out whether practical (not experimental) quantum computing is another “always five years away” technology or a revolution in high-end computing. Quantum computing technology is so powerful that many governments and companies are concerned about being left behind. Thus begins the race to create a practical quantum computer with software.

To the average person, few fields of science are more confusing than quantum physics. Albert Einstein also once challenged some theoretical foundations of quantum mechanics. Quantum concepts such as an object being able to exist in two places or being in two different states at the same time do not make sense. However, by the 1960s, quantum physics was established as a discipline, and by the 1980s, quantum mechanics could one day be used to operate computers, and quantum computers were far more powerful than transistor/chip-based computers. It was generally recognized that there might be. It became popular after World War II.

By the 1990s, most scientists involved had concluded that quantum-based computers could perform in some respects much faster than conventional computers, even though the processing speeds of conventional computers had increased. I was there. This began the development of important algorithms and software platforms designed to exploit the inherent capabilities of quantum computers, and in the 2000s there was a significant effort to build a working and reliable quantum computer. was held. Finally, all this led to the question of how such computers would actually be used and whether quantum computers could perform tasks that traditional supercomputers could not perform.

These millennium findings brought global attention to what had previously been largely theoretical. The speed of quantum computers could enable discoveries in areas where the variables are so vast that traditional supercomputers cannot reach the process. These include areas such as pharmaceuticals, climate patterns, chemical compounds, and new materials. Perhaps more importantly, the speed of quantum computing has the potential to crack virtually any cryptographically secret code, vastly increasing the capabilities of artificial intelligence (and its robot descendants) to surpass almost anything imaginable. It's something that can potentially be done at high speed.

In the 2010s, big tech companies like Google and IBM variously claimed that their experimental quantum computers could perform functions in minutes that would take supercomputers decades to perform. (It is important to note, however, that the vast numbers of calculations that individuals, businesses, and governments perform every day do not require the enormous speeds of quantum computers. ) and to develop practical and reliable quantum computers and software for very specialized high-end functions by the 2020s. commercial, geopolitical, and military competition began.

Building a reliable quantum computer requires a lot of infrastructure, materials, and specialized staff. For example, many prototypes rely on stable temperatures near absolute zero and a variety of highly educated and experienced scientists. Large companies such as Google, IBM, Fujitsu, Amazon, and Microsoft began investing in efforts to build practical quantum computers in the 2010s, but startup investments in quantum computing only began to gain momentum in 2021. 2022, and McKinsey reports that the level has reached almost zero. $2.5 billion annually (reduced to approximately $1.7 billion in 2023)

Even more important is the government's recent quantum investment. Depending on the countries involved, governments and industry often work in symbiosis on quantum R&D, as much of the government spending on quantum computer R&D is outsourced to technology companies. Government spending on quantum computing is driven by economic fears of being left behind by other economic powers (EU, US, Japan, India, China) and military rivals (US, China, Russia, NATO countries).

The largest government efforts so far to develop reliable quantum computing services have come from China and the United States, which have pledged investments of approximately $15 billion and $5 billion, respectively (U.S. estimates does not include major related private investments). Meanwhile, the United States announced the National Quantum Initiative, which brings together billions of U.S. military, scientific, and civilian quantum research efforts. The EU's $1 billion Flagship Quantum Initiative, combined with more than $8 billion in related quantum research efforts by Germany, France and the Netherlands, is not far behind. Finally, the UK, India, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Canada are each committing more than $1 billion to quantum computing research and development.

PR announcements about quantum developments are frequently made by governments, big tech companies, and startups, but few, if any, companies claim that a practical/reliable quantum computer exists. Furthermore, although significant advances in quantum computing are likely to take place covertly within military/intelligence programs in various countries, secret military quantum computers designed to protect military secrets may It is unclear whether it will ultimately be used for civilian or commercial purposes (military secret technology is sometimes used). It will take decades to find civil and commercial uses. )

Developing reliable quantum computers and the software that supports them will likely take many years, and their ultimate utility may lie in secret cryptography, the development of new materials, medicines, and chemicals, and financial and scientific analysis. The focus is likely to be on mega-tasks such as data. Whether politicians, investors, and the media have the patience to see this ambitious endeavor through to completion is perhaps the biggest uncertainty of quantum computing.

Roger Cochetti has held senior leadership positions at COMSAT, IBM, VeriSign, and CompTIA. A former U.S. government official, he has helped found many nonprofit organizations in the technology field and is the author of a textbook on the history of satellite communications.